scribblerme blog: SportsHead's NFL Mock Draft 4.0

Photos courtesy Icon SMI/Getty Images/BYU. Graphic by Bryan LieneschWritten by: Bryan LieneschHere it is, the one I'm taking with me to the bank. Well, so to speak. If I show up at my bank they'll probably be more interested in my outstanding credit bills. Tell them I'm not home if they call, okay?What I mean is this is it, my FINAL mock draft. I'm pushing the button. I'm telling Regis it's my final answer. Right or wrong, this is what I'm rolling with.There are a couple changes, namely Jesse Williams is back in the first round and John Cyprien's brief stay is now over. The defensive ends have shifted their draft stocks a little bit, but the same ones that were there in version 3.0 are here again. That doesn't mean they will be come the real thing tomorrow, though.I've also added on the famous trade meter, an estimate of how likely a pick is to be dealt. These less-than-scientific numbers come from a combination of the team not having a true "fit" at their spot, the uncertainty of the pick, and the team's historically activity levels when it comes to trading in recent drafts.Well, enjoy! 1. Kansas City ChiefsLuke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&MJoeckel has what I like to call a 'franchise ceiling'. That means he could be a staple on the blindside for the next decade no matter where he plays. For the Chiefs, it'll be another step towards showing that they're serious about Alex Smith and believe they can win ballgames with him. That may be debatable, but one thing's for sure: there'll be virtually no questions about the big man to Smith's back in the pocket.Version 1.0 Pick: Luke Joeckel, Version 2.0 Pick: Luke Joeckel, Version 3.0 Pick: Luke JoeckelTrade Meter: 0.5

Associated Press2. Jacksonville JaguarsDion Jordan, DE, OregonThere are so many holes in Jacksonville that the Jaguars, quite frankly, could go any one of a number of ways here. With that being said, though, the most glaring hole has to be their pass rush, where they were last in the league in sacks last season. The Jaguars could go with an offensive tackle here, but while their quarterback situation remains a mess, I think they'd much rather address a problem they think they CAN solve.Version 1.0 Pick: Dion Jordan, Version 2.0 Pick: Dion Jordan, Version 3.0 Pick: Dion JordanTrade Meter: 1.03. Oakland RaidersSharrif Floyd, DT, FloridaOf all the picks projected here in the first round, this is the one I feel the most comfortable about. The only other way Oakland would've conceivably gone here this high is with a quarterback, and it's clear that is not their intentions after trading for Matt Flynn (and then dealing Carson Palmer). You'll hear the phrase "building block" thrown around a lot when it comes to Floyd, and it's more than likely his 300-lb. frame will become just that as the Raiders look to rebuild a defense that has been mediocre at best for quite some time.Version 1.0 Pick: Sharrif Floyd, Version 2.0 Pick: Sharrif Floyd, Version 3.0 Pick: Sharrif FloydTrade Meter: 1.04. Philadelphia EaglesGeno Smith, QB, West VirginiaIn my estimation, Philadelphia is the first pick that is not a virtual lock. They need a lot of things, including help at left tackle and a pass rusher from the outside. But Chip Kelly is all about his high-octane offense, and if the playmakers at the game's most important position aren't there, he'll take Smith at #4. Plus, here's some food for thought: the Eagles are the only team with questions at quarterback that haven't done anything with the position so far. Intriguing, no?Version 1.0 Pick: Eric Fisher, Version 2.0 Pick: Eric Fisher, Version 3.0 Pick: Geno SmithTrade Meter: 4.55. Detroit LionsEric Fisher, OT, Central MichiganIf I were the GM of the Lions, I wouldn't even be looking at the offensive side of the ball. However, one cannot ignore the fact that Detroit has lost three of their five starting offensive lineman since the start of the offseason. Lions fans are clamoring for the big man from CMU, but the question is "will he even be available?" The more time goes on, the more teams are falling in love with this kid. If he IS available, though, as he is in this mock draft, all indications are that Detroit won't hesitate to take him.Version 1.0 Pick: Ziggy Ansah, Version 2.0 Pick: Ziggy Ansah, Version 3.0 Pick: Eric FisherTrade Meter: 1.56. Cleveland BrownsDee Milliner, CB, AlabamaPersonally, I don't think the Browns best investment at #6 is a corner to pair with Joe Haden. I know that's what everyone says they like, but it just doesn't make sense to me. Then again, Trent Richardson to the Browns also didn't make sense to me. And seeing as this is an exercise in attempting to forecast the draft correctly, I take that little coincidence as a promising sign that the top corner in a talented draft pool goes right here.Version 1.0 Pick: Star Lotulelei, Version 2.0 Pick: Dee Milliner, Version 3.0 Pick: Dee MillinerTrade Meter: 2.0

Matthew Emmons/USA Today Sports7. Arizona CardinalsLane Johnson, OT, OklahomaIn my mind, there WERE two ways the Cardinals could really go here: quarterback or offensive tackle. With the trade for Carson Palmer, I think it's now pretty obvious the former won't be happening. Enter Johnson, a 6'6", 300-lb. earthmover whose displayed athleticism in the pre-draft months has him climbing up draft boards. The new Arians regime takes a chance on him here in hopes of protecting Palmer and bringing stability to the offense.Version 1.0 Pick: Lane Johnson, Version 2.0 Pick: Lane Johnson, Version 3.0 Pick: Lane JohnsonTrade Meter: 2.08. Buffalo BillsXavier Rhodes, CB, Florida StateI actually cringe as I make this pick. There's nothing wrong with Rhodes, but is he a stretch at 8th overall? Probably. The Bills are sort of in this no-man's land where all the positions they sorely need don't currently have talent worthy of their pick here. Rhodes is the least of a stretch -- and maybe he's not -- but if Geno Smith and Dee Milliner are gone by here, I wouldn't be surprised if the Bills trade back in the draft to acquire picks.Version 1.0 Pick: Geno Smith, Version 2.0 Pick: Geno Smith, Version 3.0 Pick: Ziggy AnsahTrade Meter: 6.09. New York JetsJonathan Cooper, OG, North CarolinaThis pick was originally an offensive guard to begin with and now it comes full circle. Jarvis Jones has a tremendous ceiling but there's some "bust factor" there. With everyone in gang green already ripping Mark Sanchez, the Jets can't afford to come up empty on another Top 10 draft pick. Depending on who you listen to, Cooper or Chance Warmack are the best guard in the draft class. Quite frankly, this pick could go either way. But, for my money, I'd go Cooper.Version 1.0 Pick: Chance Warmack, Version 2.0 Pick: Jarvis Jones, Version 3.0 Pick: Jarvis JonesTrade Meter: 5.010. Tennessee TitansZiggy Ansah, DE, BYUAfter having one, then the other top guard here at the Titans pick, I've changed my mind again. The signing of Andy Levitre indicates to me that the Titans are relatively satisfied with their offensive line. On the other hand, Tennessee needs an edge rusher and Mingo (or a half dozen other guys in this loaded class) would fit nicely in Nashville. Maybe the O-line isn't a finished product, but there's been enough work done there for the Titans to move other to other pressing holes in their roster.Version 1.0 Pick: Jonathan Cooper, Version 2.0 Pick: Chance Warmack, Version 3.0 Pick: Barkevius MingoTrade Meter: 3.511. San Diego ChargersStar Lotulelei, DT, UtahThe Chargers need a brick wall of a nose tackle and Lotulelei happens to be available. Isn't it funny how things just sort of work out? San Diego is one of those teams whose record did not accurately reflect just how many positions of need they have on their roster, but a now-healthy Lotulelei is an excellent place to start. Best case scenario? He's a force in SoCal for a decade and change.Version 1.0 Pick: Dee Milliner, Version 2.0 Pick: Star Lotulelei, Version 3.0 Pick: Star LotuleleiTrade Meter: 4.0

Derick E. Hingle/US PRESSWIRE12. Miami DolphinsBarkevius Mingo, DE, LSUMiami needs an offensive tackle in the worst way, but with Joeckel, Fisher, and Johnson off the board, they may have to settle for one in another round unless they move up to nab one of those three (because it would be a small miracle if any were here at pick number 12). The good news is Miami has a LOT of holes and they can use this pick to address any of them quite nicely. Werner has perennial Pro-Bowl upside, and that's the kind of thing that should be welcomed in South Beach.Version 1.0 Pick: Xavier Rhodes, Version 2.0 Pick: Xavier Rhodes, Version 3.0 Pick: Xavier RhodesTrade Meter: 5.513. New York JetsSheldon Richardson, DT, MissouriA part of me wonders if the Jets take Cooper with their first pick in the first round if they'd double down and take Chance Warmack here. Then Mark Sanchez could have his pick of the litter as to who to "butt fumble" behind. Obviously, I don't think gang green is going to do that and, while using this pick to take a corner would be both fitting and tempting, I think Sheldon Richardson is a greater talent than Desmond Trufant and can fill an equally-glaring need.(As Tampa Bay) Version 1.0 Pick: Sheldon Richardson, Version 2.0 Pick: Sheldon Richardson, Version 3.0 Pick: Desmond TrufantTrade Meter: 6.014. Carolina PanthersDesmond Trufant, CB, WashingtonWhen you look at how many points the Panthers scored combined with how many games they lost, it doesn't take an NFL Draft expert to figure out what side of the ball the Panthers should address here in the first round. Trufant's pro pedigree has been both widely touted and publicized, but ultimately it's his skills as a cover corner that will give the Carolina war room hope they can stop the bleeding on defense on of these days.Version 1.0 Pick: Kenny Vaccaro, SS, Texas, Version 2.0 Pick: Jonathan Cooper, Version 3.0 Pick: Sheldon RichardsonTrade Meter: 4.015. New Orleans SaintsJarvis Jones, OLB, GeorgiaNew Orleans is a talent-laden team that simply underperformed in 2012. That's the kind of squad that can take on a risky pick with tremendous upside like Jones. Jones has the kind of motor that will have people wondering if bounties are being placed on offensive players again and, in a best-case scenario, the Saints get the premier pass rusher they need so badly. Worst-case scenario? They're in the same spot a year from now trying to fill the same need.Version 1.0 Pick: Barkevius Mingo, Version 2.0 Pick: Barkevius Mingo, Version 3.0 Pick: Bjoern WernerTrade Meter: 3.516. St. Louis RamsChance Warmack, OG, AlabamaThe Rams should be salivating to the point of dehydration if one of the top two guards in this class falls to them. A substantial investment into the O-line like that might just turn Sam Bradford into the true franchise quarterback St. Louis is looking for him to be. With two picks in the first round and a wide swath of holes to fill, the options are virtually limitless for the Rams, but they'd be crazy not to take a guy with Warmack's skills.Version 1.0 Pick: Jarvis Jones, Version 2.0 Pick: Kenny Vaccaro, Version 3.0 Pick: Chance WarmackTrade Meter: 5.5

Daniel Shirey/US PRESSWIRE17. Pittsburgh SteelersCordarrelle Patterson, WR, TennesseeIf the Steelers come on the clock with their pick of the litter in the wide receiver pool, I'd imagine they'll be very happy. That's what happens in this scenario and the two top choices are Patterson and West Virginia's Tavon Austin. Patterson is closer to the type of receiver the Steelers HAD in Mike Wallace, and they opt to go with him with their first-round pick.Version 1.0 Pick: Cordarrelle Patterson, Version 2.0 Pick: Cordarrelle Patterson, Version 3.0 Pick: Cordarrelle PattersonTrade Meter: 2.018. Dallas CowboysKenny Vaccaro, SS, TexasThere are a number ways Dallas could go here, but safety proves to be the position of need with the best talent still available. If Dallas wanted to address their need for an offensive tackle, they'd have to reach down and get D.J. Fluker. Defensive tackle? They'd have to reach even further and nab someone like Sylvester Williams. Instead, Vaccaro isn't a reach at all, still fills a big need, and -- brace yourself -- may even be a bit of a steal.Version 1.0 Pick: D.J. Fluker, Version 2.0 Pick: D.J. Fluker, Version 3.0 Pick: Kenny VaccaroTrade Meter: 5.519. New York GiantsD.J. Fluker, OT, AlabamaFluker may be a bit of a stretch at #19, but the Giants need him. 2012 was a perfect example of just how inept the G-men are when Eli Manning isn't right and, while Fluker may not carry the cure for "dead arm", he can certainly help make sure Peyton's little brother feels more comfortable in the pocket. New York takes the right tackle in hopes of retaking the division.Version 1.0 Pick: Alec Ogletree, Version 2.0 Alec Ogletree, Version 3.0 Pick: D.J. FlukerTrade Meter: 3.520. Chicago BearsAlec Ogletree, ILB, GeorgiaThere's a small but definite shopping list in Chicago and replacing Brian Urlacher should be on top of it. There's a handful of prospects in this draft class that would make satisfactory replacements, but only Ogletree and perhaps Manti Te'o would be solid values here at pick #20. Ogletree has his risks, but if all works out, the Bears will come back to this a decade from now needing to replace Ogletree a la Urlacher. Either way, the start of Trestman's tenure is largely riding on this pick.Version 1.0 Pick: Manti Te'o, Version 2.0 Pick: Manti Te'o, Version 3.0 Pick: Jonathan CooperTrade Meter: 2.521. Cincinnati BengalsMatt Elam, FS, FloridaWhat the Bengals really need is a safety, but the question is which one? A true strong safety would be preferred, but Kenny Vaccaro is taken and no one else is a true first-round talent. At free safety, who the best is depends on who you ask, but the three in the conversation are Elam, John Cyprien, and Eric Reid. In this case here, the debate is academic because Elam is the most readily convertible to strong safety and the Bengals take him with that plan in mind.Version 1.0 Pick: Matt Elam, Version 2.0 Pick: Matt Elam, Version 3.0 Pick: Matt ElamTrade Meter: 2.5

Brad Davis/Icon SMI22. St. Louis RamsTavon Austin, WR, West VirginiaThe Rams continue to build around Sam Bradford with their second and final pick in the first round. Passing on an untouched field just to have Pittsburgh, the pick after them, take Patterson may sting a little, but that's the price you pay to take Chance Warmack. On the plus side, Tavon Austin is much more a Danny Amendola type of receiver. The last time I checked, Amendola did alright in St. Louis and Austin will as well.Version 1.0 Pick: Tavon Austin, Version 2.0 Pick: Tavon Austin, Version 3.0 Pick: Tavon AustinTrade Meter: 6.523. Minnesota VikingsManti Te'o, ILB, Notre DameIt's been a long time (longer than I can remember) since this Vikings defense has had a true leader, a quarterback for their side of the ball, if you will. Aside from filling a big need on inside of their linebacker corps., Te'o could be just that guy for the purple people eaters. We all know the raps about Te'o (his speed, the Lennay Kekua incident, etc.) so ultimately his selection is going to boil down to which team is willing to overlook all that with a chance to take a Heisman runner-up. Here, I think Minnesota is your winner.Version 1.0 Pick: Sylvester Williams, Version 2.0 Pick: Sylvester Williams, Version 3.0 Pick: Alec OgletreeTrade Meter: 6.024. Indianapolis ColtsBjoern Werner, DE, Florida StateThis pick hasn't changed through my mock drafts and, really, it doesn't change here. Werner, Moore, whoever - this loaded defensive end class remains full of premium prospects even with three already taken. Whoever the Colts take here -- as, in all likelihood it will be an end -- will be a winner. Some think Werner has Top 10 talent written all over him. If that's true, then he's a hell of a steal here at pick number 24.Version 1.0 Pick: Damontre Moore, Version 2.0 Pick: Damontre Moore, Version 3.0 Pick: Damontre MooreTrade Meter: 3.025. Minnesota VikingsSylvester Williams, DT, North CarolinaA lot of people point to a recent article where the Vikings higher-ups commented at the depth of the wide receiver position in this class as a reason why the Vikes will take one in the first round. I read it differently, though. I think the Vikings like just what they said they like: the DEPTH. That means they'll wait until later in the draft to get a compliment to Greg Jennings and take someone like Sylvester Williams here and now.Version 1.0 Pick: Desmond Trufant, Version 2.0 Pick: Desmond Trufant, Version 3.0 Pick: Cornellius CarradineTrade Meter: 6.526. Green Bay PackersDamontre Moore, DE, Texas A&MThis defensive end class is the deepest that I can remember, so even with a handful gone the Packers are getting a tremendous value here with Moore. In the era of the high-octane Aaron Rodgers offense, that traditional Pack defense has sort of fallen by the wayside. Moore will make an excellent compliment to premier pass rushers already there (read: Clay Matthews) which, in turn, will help alleviate a secondary that will be missing Charles WoodsonVersion 1.0 Pick: Cornellius Carradine, Version 2.0 Pick: Cornellis Carradine, Version 3.0 Pick: John CyprienTrade Meter: 5.0

Richey Miller/ AP27. Houston TexansJesse Williams, DT, AlabamaMost draft pundits think the Texans will use their 27th pick to give Andre Johnson a partner in crime. Sounds a lot like 2012 when most pundits thought Houston would use their 26th pick on a wide out. They, instead, addressed the defensive line and they'll do so here again. Williams is the sort of big body backed with athleticism that can really thrive in a 3-4 scheme.Version 1.0 Pick: Keenan Allen, Version 2.0 Pick: Keenan Allen, Version 3.0 Pick: Manti Te'oTrade Meter: 3.028. Denver BroncosCornellius Carradine, DE, Florida StateThe new school of thought on Denver's pick in the first round is that they'll lean towards addressing the defensive line rather than their issues at safety. And who am I to disagree? Carradine has the sort of strange yet easy-to-say name that belongs on the back of a Broncos jersey (kind of like Elvis Dumervil used to be). He's not Dumervil, obviously, but Carradine can help the pass rush in Colorado just as much which may be all that the Broncos need to put them over the top and into a Super Bowl.Version 1.0 Pick: Eric Reid, Version 2.0 Pick: Bjoern Werner, Version 3.0 Pick: Eric ReidTrade Meter: 5.529. New England PatriotsJamar Taylor, CB, Boise StateDon't get it twisted: Danny Amendola is not a proper replacement for Wes Welker. If the Patriots could've used another wide receiver before, they're bordering on "needing" one now. However, New England scores points. They don't, on the other hand, stop points from BEING scored. That's why they'll, as they did a year ago, use the first round to address their defense and take a cornerback. So do they take Taylor or Johnthan Banks? Belichick passes on the big, slow one with some red flags surrounding him.Version 1.0 Pick: Jamar Taylor, Version 2.0 Pick: Jamar Taylor, Version 3.0 Pick: Jamar TaylorTrade Meter: 7.030. Atlanta FalconsDatone Jones, DE, UCLAWith the defensive end pool thoroughly tapped into by this point, it's hard to figure out, a, if the Falcons will even be interested in an end and, b, which one of those available do they like the most? Here's what I do know: until the Falcons can stop teams from making big plays and putting up points in large chunks, Atlanta will never get over their supposed playoff course. In my estimation, Jones gives the Falcons the best chance of doing just that.Version 1.0 Pick: Jesse Williams, Version 2.0 Pick: Jesse Williams, Version 3.0 Pick: Datone JonesTrade Meter: 6.031. San Francisco 49ersEric Reid, FS, LSUThe 49ers need a safety badly. Two, even. If it wasn't apparent in the Super Bowl, it's certainly apparent now. Depending on who you ask, Reid is either a steal, a solid value, or a stretch here at the first round. It doesn't really matter, though, because the Niners can ill afford to pass him up. John Cyprien out of Florida International is also a possibility here, but Reid is a bit more of a true free safety which is the greater need right now in the Bay Area.Version 1.0 Pick: John Cyprien, Version 2.0 Pick: Eric Reid, Version 3.0 Pick: Sylvester WilliamsTrade Meter: 5.532. Baltimore RavensKevin Minter, ILB, LSUI don't think I can remember a Super Bowl Championship team that had a larger exodus of talent following their title run. They could use a lot of things, but they need safeties and linebackers. The man that got the Ravens to the Super Bowl was Ray Lewis and the closest thing resembling Lewis still around is Kevin Minter. He may not be a future Hall of Famer, but his talent is far from a stretch here at the end of the first round.Version 1.0 Pick: Kevin Minter, Version 2.0 Pick: Kevin Minter, Version 3.0 Pick: Kevin MinterTrade Meter: 4.5
Source:http://sportsheadblog.blogspot.com/2013/04/sportsheads-nfl-mock-draft-40-final.html

SportsHead's NFL Mock Draft 4.0 - FINAL MOCK DRAFT! Images